Global fundamentals

Consider how modern energy enhances your life. Now consider the 7 billion other people on earth who also use energy each day to make their own lives more productive, safer and healthier. Then you will recognize what is perhaps the biggest driver of energy demand: the human desire to sustain and improve the well-being of ourselves, our families and our communities. Through 2040, population and economic growth will drive demand higher, but the world will use energy more efficiently and shift toward lower-carbon fuels.

Non OECD will see a steep rise in population
Population growth is one reason why ExxonMobil sees global energy demand rising by about 30 percent from 2010 to 2040. By 2040, there will be nearly 9 billion people on the planet, up from about 7 billion today.

But population growth is slowing. In some places—many OECDDeveloped economies that belong to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries, plus China—populations will change little by 2040. This global deceleration, coupled with gains in energy efficiency, will further the significant slowdown in energy demand growth that has been under way for decades. While population is a key to projecting energy demand, demographics matter, too. Of particular importance is a country’s working-age population—people 15 to 64 years old—because that group is the engine for economic growth and energy demand.

OECD energy demand flattens through 2040
The world’s economies will continue to grow, but at varying rates. ExxonMobil sees OECD economies expanding by about 2 percent a year on average through 2040, as the United States, European nations and others gradually recover and return to sustained growth. Non OECDEconomies not belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development economies will grow much faster, at almost 4.5 percent a year.

This economic growth—and the improved living standards it enables—will require more energy. ExxonMobil expects global energy demand to be about 30 percent higher in 2040 than in 2010. While that is a significant increase, and meeting it will require trillions of dollars in investment and advances in energy technology, growth in energy use would be more than four times that amount were it not for expected gains in energy efficiency across the world’s economies.

Natural gas will become the world's number-two fuel
Even with advances in efficiency, rising populations and expanding economies will produce a net increase in global energy demand. Demand for all forms of energy is projected to rise at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent a year from 2010 to 2040.

Oil will remain the world’s top energy source, led by 70-percent growth in liquid petroleum demand in Non OECD nations. The fastest-growing major energy source will be natural gas, with global demand rising by about 60 percent from 2010 to 2040. Demand for coal, on the other hand, will peak around 2025 and then gradually decline, as improved efficiency couples with a shift to less-carbon-intensive energies, particularly in the electricity generation sector. Global demand for the least carbon-intensive fuels—natural gas, nuclear and renewables—will rise at a faster-than-average rate. Wind, solar and biofuels also will see strong growth.